21 July 2026
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220517
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles off the coast of Central
America is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Well Southwest of Hawaii:
A trough of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend as the system approaches the
International Date Line.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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Summary for Hurricane Fausto (EP1/EP062026)
...FAUSTO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Fausto was located near 16.6, -120.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Fausto Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
357
WTPZ31 KNHC 220235
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
...FAUSTO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 120.3W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 120.3 West. Fausto is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next
several days.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected through
Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and should persist for a
couple more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
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Hurricane Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
425
WTPZ21 KNHC 220235
TCMEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 135SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 120.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.0W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 110SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.3N 123.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.6N 125.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N 130.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 138.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.0N 143.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 120.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
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Hurricane Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
824
WTPZ41 KNHC 220236
TCDEP1
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
A 21/2144 UTC AMSR-2 overpass shows a microwave eye feature tucked
under the convection, indicating that Fausto may have re-gained some
organization. The pass also indicates the previous advisory may
have been about 10 to 15 miles too fast toward the northwest.
Recent objective intensity estimates have been ranging between 60-75
kt. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB is 4.5/77 kt.
The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt for this advisory, as a
blend of all the aforementioned data.
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 8 kt. The
subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone should
build westward during the next several days, which should steer the
cyclone west-northwestward to westward through the forecast period.
The new NHC forecast track lies slightly to the south of, and is a
bit slower than, the previous forecast track for the first 3 days,
and is in excellent agreement with the latest HCCA and GDMI during
that time. Beyond 3 days, the NHC forecast has been shifted
southward of the previous forecast, but not nearly as far south as
the latest HCCA and GDMI. The confidence in the forecast track is
moderate to high through 72 h, given the relatively tight clustering
of the guidance. Spread increases after that time, with the GFS
among the slower and farthest north models, while the ECMWF, HCCA
and GDMI are faster and farther south.
While Fausto is forecast to be in a light to moderate shear
environment for the next several days, it will be moving over slowly
decreasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) through 72 h. The
forecast track is near and roughly parallel to the 26C isotherm. In
addition, the atmospheric moisture near the storm should slowly
decrease through 72 h, followed by a faster decrease. Slow
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 h, and no change is
made to the 85 kt peak intensity forecast shown in the previous
advisory. The NHC forecast lies between the middle and upper-end of
the reliable intensity guidance during that period. By Thursday
night or Friday, gradual weakening is expected due to the drier air
and SSTs near 26C. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end
of the model suite from 60 h through the end of the forecast
period. It is possible that Fausto could weaken to a tropical storm
by day 5, given that several reliable models show this scenario.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 16.6N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 17.3N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.6N 125.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 17.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 18.2N 130.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 18.6N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 19.2N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.0N 143.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen
-
Hurricane Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
365
FOPZ11 KNHC 220235
PWSEP1
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 42(52) X(52) X(52)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 36(68) X(68)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) X(31)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 28(65)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN