National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
National Hurricane Center Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
NHC Eastern North Pacific
21 July 2026
Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
815
ABPZ20 KNHC 212308
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles off the coast of Central
America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Southwest of Hawaii:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend as the system approaches the
International Date Line.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen -
Summary for Hurricane Fausto (EP1/EP062026)
...FAUSTO TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Jul 21 the center of Fausto was located near 16.6, -119.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Fausto Public Advisory Number 12
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 212033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 ...FAUSTO TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 119.9W ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 119.9 West. Fausto is now moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, gradual strengthening is expected tonight through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
629 WTPZ21 KNHC 212033 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 119.9W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 119.9W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 121.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.4N 122.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.7N 124.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.9N 127.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.3N 129.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.6N 132.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.4N 137.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212034 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 The core of Fausto has not regained any organization since the previous advisory, and overall the satellite appearance is of a system below hurricane strength. However, a SAR overpass near 14Z indicated that the system still had hurricane-force winds, and this is supported by satellite intensity estimates from microwave sounders. Based on these, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. Fausto is starting its west-northwestward turn and the initial motion is now 295/10 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone should build westward during the next five days, and this evolution should steer the cyclone west- northwestward to westward through the forecast period. As before, the track guidance remains tightly clustered for three days. After that, there remains an increase in the north-south spread between the GFS and Canadian models on the north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF, Google DeepMind, and the HAFS models on the south side of the guidance envelope. For the first three days, the new forecast track lies near the previous forecast and the center of the guidance. At days 4 and 5, it is a little south of the previous track and a little north of the various consensus models. While Fausto is forecast to be in a light- to moderate shear environment for the next several days, it will be moving over slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures through 72 h. Subsequently, the forecast track is near and roughly parallel to the 26C isotherm. In addition, the atmospheric moisture near the storm should slowly decrease for 72 h, followed by a faster decrease. The intensity guidance responds to these factors by showing intensification for 48-60 h, with a gradual weakening after 72 h. Based on the guidance and the need for the core to re-organize, the new intensity forecast shows little change in strength for 12 h, followed by gradual strengthening until the 60 h point. The forecast peak intensity of 85 kt is near the upper edge of the guidance. After 72 h, the forecast follows the overall weakening trend of the guidance. The new forecast is weaker than than the previous forecast through 60 h, and is similar to the previous forecast thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 16.6N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.0N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 17.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 17.7N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 17.9N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 18.3N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.6N 132.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 19.4N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026
000 FOPZ11 KNHC 212033 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 60(63) 1(64) X(64) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 58(75) 1(76) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 40(65) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
